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On April 16th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?
14
1kṀ4040
in 15 hours
99%
x ≥ 2
78%
x ≥ 4
71%
x ≥ 6
47%
x ≥ 8
42%
x ≥ 10
35%
x ≥ 12
23%
x ≥ 14

Question

On April 16th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?

Resolution Criteria

Let x be the 7-day average ships passing on through the Strait of Hormuz on April 16th 2026. Using IMF PortWatch as the official source, each market above will resolve to YES if the inequality is true and will resolve to NO otherwise.

If the data are not available by end of day April 30th, I will resolve each market to NA.

Related Markets

Shipping interruptions in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

  • Update 2026-04-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Only commercial ships tracked by IMF PortWatch will be counted. Military ships are excluded.

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should military ships be counted?

@Hakari it looks like IMF tracks only commercial ships. To keep things simple, I will continue with the ships tracked by IMF.

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