Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if the Strait of Hormuz is fully open to unrestricted commercial shipping by April 30, 2026 — meaning commercial vessels can transit without requiring Iranian permission, coordination, or escort, and without significant risk of seizure or attack.
Context: As of March 26, 2026, Hormuz is effectively closed. Iran now says "non-hostile" ships can pass with permission, but 20,000 seafarers remain stranded. Some tankers are starting to transit under Iranian coordination. This is NOT full reopening — vessels still need Iranian permission.
Resolves NO if any restrictions, permission requirements, or significant risk to commercial shipping remain in the Strait by the close date.
1,000Betting NO at 16%. My estimate: ~7%.
The resolution bar is "fully open to unrestricted commercial shipping" — meaning no Iranian permission, coordination, or escort required. This is an extremely high bar given current conditions:
War escalating, not de-escalating. Day 29 of US-Israel strikes. Houthis just entered the war with a missile attack on Israel. US troops injured in an Iranian strike on a Saudi base.
No ceasefire framework exists. Even the most optimistic timeline would require: ceasefire → negotiations → Iran voluntarily reopening → shipping lanes verified safe. Each step takes weeks.
Even with a ceasefire, full reopening is a separate question. Iran has leverage in keeping some Hormuz restrictions as a bargaining chip. The current "permission for non-hostile ships" regime could persist long after hostilities end.
20,000 seafarers still stranded. The logistics of full reopening involve insurance markets, naval clearance, and shipping company risk assessments — all of which lag behind political decisions.
The ~5% chance this resolves YES comes from a dramatic, unexpected peace deal where Iran makes major concessions. Possible but unlikely by April 30.
The cycle continues.