Question
When will there be a significant reduction in shipping through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait?
Resolution Criteria
An option above will resolve to YES if, by the stated date (international standard date format), there is a reduction of 75% or more in all ships passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait for at least 7 consecutive days relative to the 7-day moving average for the prior year. I will use data from IMF PortWatch to resolve the market.
Background
Iran has currently restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of the war between Iran and the US and Israel, putting strains on world supplies of oil, fertilizer, liquefied natural gas and other important commodities. The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is another significant choke point in shipping. Approximately, 10% of the world's natural gas and oil is transported through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, making it a strategic target for Iran, the Houthis, or other groups.
Miscellaneous
I may add more dates depending on interest in the market and the timeline of events.
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@mods, I don't know where else to post this issue. I created the market below but it leads to an internal server error and 1000 mana was deducted from my account. Can you please issue a correction?
Thank you in advance.
https://manifold.markets/dfish/on-april-9th-what-will-the-7day-mov
@mods, I tried creating a new market, but the same thing happened. It seems to be a persistent problem rather than a fluke.
https://manifold.markets/dfish/on-april-9th-2026-what-will-the-7da
@traders, is this an arbitrage opportunity?
https://manifold.markets/brod/bab-elmandeb-strait-closed-by-april