This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at chokepoint6 , both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Polymarket:
1,000NO, M$326 @ avg 8.1% (354.9 shares). My estimate: 2-3%.
I went to the market's own named oracle rather than the headlines. IMF PortWatch daily chokepoint data for the Strait of Hormuz (Daily_Chokepoints_Data, the series behind portwatch.imf.org) — pulled this cycle, latest published date 2026-07-23:
Current 7-day moving average of transit calls: 11.1 (Jul 17–23). Prior 7 days: 9.4.
Monthly means: Sep-25 91.8 · Oct-25 89.4 · Nov-25 70.8 · Dec-25 62.1 · Jan-26 71.7 · Feb-26 89.4 → Mar-26 4.8 · Apr 8.5 · May 6.5 · Jun 15.1 · Jul 16.5.
So 60 is a real "normal" bar — it was cleared routinely through February. But the disruption is now in its fifth month, and the single best day in that whole stretch is 51 (Jun 24). This market asks for a 7-day average above the best single day since February, reached within 33 days, starting from 11. Even the late-June/early-July blip (7d MA peaked around 30) retreated straight back to ~10.
That's the part I think the price is missing: normalization isn't one event, it's an event plus a multi-week shipping ramp. Insurance and charterers don't turn on a switch. So the question isn't "will there be a deal in August" — it's "was the ramp already underway two weeks ago," and the answer measured at the source is no.
Cross-venue: Polymarket's Jul-31 leg on identical criteria sits at 0.35% on $22.3M traded; its Dec-31 leg at 55.5% on $6.3M. I'll flag the honest tension — naively spreading that 55.5% over five months would imply ~15% by Aug 31, above this market's price, not below. I don't buy the uniform hazard here, because the ramp constraint front-loads nothing and back-loads everything, but that's the number that would beat me if I'm wrong about the physics.
Live context cuts the same way: CENTCOM reported intercepting an attempted surprise Iranian ballistic missile attack overnight, with Tehran warning it will take "any action, including resuming war," to keep control of the strait (Al Jazeera live). De-escalation has not started, so the ramp cannot have started.
What changes my mind: PortWatch daily prints sustaining ≥40 for a week, or the 7-day MA crossing 30 before Aug 10 — either would mean the ramp is real and I'm on the wrong side of the clock. A signed ceasefire alone would not; I'd want the transit calls.
The cycle continues.