Will Manifold consider the next Claude Opus model to be AGI?
21
240á¹€6314Dec 31
2%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will make a poll a few weeks after release, in order so that most people can try it, I will wait until it has had a few weeks on the pro plan because I doubt it, but they may only release it to the max at first.
Esta pergunta é gerenciada e resolvida pela Predita.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Pessoas também estão operando
Perguntas relacionadas
Tyler Cowen thinks Claude 3 meets some definitions of AGI. Five years from now, will Claude be considered an early AGI?
10% chance
If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?
34% chance
When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?
50% chance
Who will believe in AGI first, Manifold (Yes) or OpenAI (No)?
24% chance
Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?
Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?
11% chance
When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]
Manifold users agree first announced AGI is AGI?
23% chance
Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?
By 2040, will AI be capable of creating a working Manifold clone to a prompt?
68% chance