When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]
20
1ká¹€20292030
3%
Before 2026
48%
2026 - 2028 inclusive
17%
2029 - 2031 inclusive
8%
2032 - 2034 inclusive
24%
Yearly manifold poll. Do we currenly have AGI
Yes
No
I don't know
Bad quesiton
We need a majority on Yes of all answers (not just yes/no)
Esta pergunta é gerenciada e resolvida pela Predita.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Pessoas também estão operando
Perguntas relacionadas
When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?
50% chance
Manifold users agree first announced AGI is AGI?
23% chance
Who will believe in AGI first, Manifold (Yes) or OpenAI (No)?
24% chance
By when will we have AGI?
At the beginning of 2027, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
70% chance
If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?
34% chance
If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ?
67% chance
Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?
Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?
At the beginning of 2029, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
77% chance