What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2028?
10
150Ṁ3782028
1.8%
8-16 hours
2%
16-32 hours
4%
32-64 hours
8%
64-128 hours
82%
128+ hours
2%
<8 hours
The naive extrapolation from the original paper would be around 32 hours. If METR decides to stop publishing the benchmark or there is some other problem, I will mark as N/A.
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