What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
15
125á¹€9872027
0.6%
4-8 Hours
0.6%
8-16 Hours
12%
16-32 Hours
30%
32-64 Hours
57%
The naive extrapolation from the original paper would be around 8 hours. If METR decides to stop publishing the benchmark or there is some other problem, I will mark as N/A.
Update 2026-02-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the METR time horizon estimate breaks down or is ambiguous/unknown, the market will resolve to the best point estimate even if the confidence interval is wide.
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@DavidHiggs It will be the best point estimate, even if the CI is wide. Should I add a "64-128 hour" bucket? Or "64+ hours"?
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