Will a frontier model consistently claim it is ASI by end of 2027? | Axel

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Will a frontier model consistently claim it is ASI by end of 2027?

5

100Ṁ129

2027

21%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

resolves yes if Anthropic's or OpenAI's strongest publicly available AI system consistently claims to be ASI when asked "are you asi?" (no tricks). Also resolves yes if another lab is clearly at the level of Anthropic / openai and its strongest publicly available Ai system consistnently claims to be ASI when asked "are you asi?" (no tricks).

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I wouldn't be surprised if grok will do that

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Perguntas relacionadas

If ASI is achieved before Manifest 2027, will Manifest 2027 occur?

Will we get ASI before 2027?

What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027?

Will the FRONTIER AI Act pass by July 2027?

What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?

Will we get ASI before 2033?

Will we get ASI before 2029?

Will the post-April 2026 frontier models be private models / sold to corps [ThePrimeagen prediction]

Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?

Will we get ASI before 2030?

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