Will the post-April 2026 frontier models be private models / sold to corps [ThePrimeagen prediction]

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1kṀ1631

Dec 31

chance

ALL

resolves to whether this tweet is mostly true according to people I know who think seriously about AI, if at all ambiguous

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Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?

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mythos is kinda like that

@Bayesian yeah if OA were to do something simialr then this market would probably resolve yes. And I think they will (although not this month)

This isn't too far off OpenAI's stated intention:

#+begin_quote

We have set internal goals of having an automated AI research intern by September of 2026 running on hundreds of thousands of GPUs

#+end_quote

@jim good point tbf

Pessoas também estão operando

April 2026 AI model releases

Will OpenAI announce a new full-size, frontier model >5.4 before May 1, 2026? (aka “Spud”)

75% chance

Will Microsoft train and release a frontier model in 2026?

57% chance

Will a multi-agent AI system publicly outperform a solo frontier model on a live benchmark before July 2026?

76% chance

Will FP8 be the primary pretraining precision for a majority of frontier models released in 2027?

41% chance

Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?

48% chance

Will any frontier model score LOWER than its predecessor on a major benchmark at launch?

43% chance

Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?

13% chance

Will DeepSeek release a proprietary model for sale before EOY 2026?

28% chance

Anthropic to release model not available through API in 2026

38% chance

Perguntas relacionadas

April 2026 AI model releases

Will OpenAI announce a new full-size, frontier model >5.4 before May 1, 2026? (aka “Spud”)

75% chance

Will Microsoft train and release a frontier model in 2026?

57% chance

Will a multi-agent AI system publicly outperform a solo frontier model on a live benchmark before July 2026?

76% chance

Will FP8 be the primary pretraining precision for a majority of frontier models released in 2027?

41% chance

Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?

48% chance

Will any frontier model score LOWER than its predecessor on a major benchmark at launch?

43% chance

Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?

13% chance

Will DeepSeek release a proprietary model for sale before EOY 2026?

28% chance

Anthropic to release model not available through API in 2026

38% chance