Will FP8 be the primary pretraining precision for a majority of frontier models released in 2027?
1
200á¹€202028
41%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if among frontier AI models released in 2027, a majority used FP8 as their primary pretraining precision. Frontier models = flagship from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, Meta AI, xAI, Mistral. FP8 means majority of compute in FP8 not BF16/FP16/FP32. Mixed precision where FP8 dominates counts. Post-training quantization does NOT count. Based on official reports or credible reporting. Undisclosed models excluded. Resolves NO if fewer than half qualify or insufficient info by March 2028.
Esta pergunta é gerenciada e resolvida pela Predita.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Pessoas também estão operando
Perguntas relacionadas
Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026?
25% chance
Will a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028?
33% chance
Will any frontier-class model training run be announced with >$1B total compute cost before 2026-12-31?
63% chance
Will the post-April 2026 frontier models be private models / sold to corps [ThePrimeagen prediction]
7% chance
End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026
37% chance
Will Microsoft train and release a frontier model in 2026?
20% chance
Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?
6% chance
Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?
43% chance
Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?
71% chance
Will frontier AI effective training compute increase by a factor 10 billion between 2025 and 2035?
70% chance