When will Google release the next generation of its Gemma open-weight language model (e.g., Gemma 5 or any successor beyond Gemma 4)?

Counts as release:

• Official public release (weights or model download) by Google or DeepMind.

• Includes variants (e.g., Gemma 5 Mini, Gemma 5 1B, etc.) as long as they represent a new generation.

Does not count:

• Minor updates or fine-tunes of existing Gemma 4 models.

• Internal or unreleased research papers without public model weights.

Resolution rules:

• Thresholds are quarterly: “Before Q1 2027”, “Before Q2 2027”, “Before Q3 2027”, and so on.

• If the date passes with no qualifying release, that threshold resolves NO (e.g., “Before Q1 2027” resolves NO at the start of January 2027).

• When a qualifying Gemma 5 / successor model releases, all applicable thresholds up to that quarter resolve YES.

• Update 2026-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 'Before Q3 2028' option label was missing the word 'before' — this has been corrected. The creator will not trade on this market for 48 hours to allow traders to adjust positions accordingly.