When will a single Falcon 9 booster fly 40 times
18
1kṀ2508
2031
5%
Before Jan 1 2027
86%
Before Jan 1 2028
90%
Before Jan 1 2029
92%
Before Jan 1 2030
4%
2030 or later
8%
Never

In April 2024, B1062 became the first falcon booster to reach 20 flights. The company says it is currently qualifying them to fly 40 times each. Coincidentally(?), if a booster flies 40 times, it will also break Discovery's record 39 flights, though the comparison of a shuttle orbiter and first stage of a more traditional rocket is difficult.

Market resolves after a successful flight to orbit. Landing is not necessary. Local time at launch site.

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comprou Ṁ50 YES

Before Jan 1 2027 7%
Before Jan 1 2028 86%
Big gap add quarterly dates between those or maybe before 1 feb 2027, 1 Mar, 1 April 2027 is better?

comprou Ṁ50 NO

It is going to be close for 'before Jan 1 2027', but the flight leader would need to maintain and/or accelerate its pace in order to get to 4 flights before the end of the year.

I assume that's supposed to be 2028?

@Nat Oops yeah 🤣. Thanks for pointing it out.

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