Which of Simon Willison's predictions from 2026 will come true?

1kṀ257

Dec 31

50%

1 year: It will become undeniable that LLMs write good code

50%

1 year: We’re finally going to solve sandboxing

35%

1 year: A “Challenger disaster” for coding agent security

50%

1 year: Kākāpō parrots will have an outstanding breeding season

50%

3 years: the coding agents Jevons paradox for software engineering will resolve, one way or the other

40%

6 years: Typing code by hand will go the way of punch cards

From https://simonwillison.net/2026/Jan/8/llm-predictions-for-2026/

If Simon publishes evaluations of his own predictions, I'll resolve accordingly. If no evaluations are forthcoming, I may resolve based on my own judgement.

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comprou Ṁ20 NO

I think “it will be undeniable AI can write good code” will be false because the standard for “good code” will shift as AI improves.

Kind of like how when LLMs got IMO Gold, and proved Erdos problem 205 those things became unimpressive.

As long as there are AI haters and AI exists at a level that isn’t clearly superhuman, there’s going to be lots of people saying it’s bad at what it’s doing.