Similar terms as https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-i-think-all-ai-hell-broke-loos. Resolves based on my personal sense of all AI hell.
Three times as much AI-driven change as happened in 2025 is not sufficient.
Different factions of the US army having tank battles, after being persuaded by different AIs, is sufficient but not necessary.
If everyone is dead, this market should conceptually resolve N/A.
See other Q&As in the first market.
Update 2026-03-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the AI 2027 scenario: the creator considers July (when Agent-3-mini is released publicly, AGI is declared, massive job disruption occurs, and bioweapon capability is confirmed) as the earliest point in that narrative that would count as AI hell breaking loose.
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@EliezerYudkowsky Does this market wait specifically until close to resolve, or can it resolve at any point in time? (Does a lack of a resolution imply that AI hell did not break loose yet?)
@EliezerYudkowsky What is your current estimate of the probability of this happening?
Which year or month (if any) of the AI 2027 race ending would you say is the earliest one such that it would count as loose-broken AI hell if the described events up to and including that period all transpired within 2026?
@TheAllMemeingEye Haven't read AI 2027 actually. :/ I asked Opus to summarize 2027 events by month and it sounds like "July: Agent-3-mini is released publicly, cheaper and better than a typical employee; OpenBrain declares AGI; massive job disruption, market frenzy, and public backlash ensue; external evaluators find Agent-3-mini can produce detailed bioweapon instructions" is when signs first become publicly visible so I'd go with July.