
Will I believe any AI system is conscious before 2027?
6
100Ṁ582027
35%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Needs 95% confidence to resolve YES. I am probably somewhere around 20% for current models and likely need to see interpretability research suggesting this to get to high confidence.
Esta pergunta é gerenciada e resolvida pela Predita.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Pessoas também estão operando
Perguntas relacionadas
When will I believe an AI is conscious with >66% credence?
2030
Will an AI simulate human consciousness by 2100?
75% chance
Will a company lose ownership of an AI due to credible claims of the AI's possible sentience by the end of 2026?
5% chance
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2025? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
35% chance
By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?
33% chance
Will AI interpretability techniques reveal an AI to have been plotting to take over the world before 2028?
14% chance
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2030? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
43% chance
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
58% chance
Will a conscious computer be built before 2030?
21% chance
Will a conscious computer be built before 2040?
31% chance