This market will resolve to yes if the US creates a policy by 2028 to track stocks and flows of cutting-edge chips over a specific capability threshold and requires a license for assembling large masses of such chips. The policy aims to improve visibility into potentially dangerous clusters of compute, and ensure the effectiveness of other compute governance measures.

Luke Muehlhauser from Open Philanthropy suggests this idea in his April 2023 post, "12 tentative ideas for US AI policy." This market idea was proposed by Michael Chen.