Em altaUrgenteNovo
PolíticaEsportesCriptoFinançasGeopolíticaResultadosTecnologiaCulturaMundoEconomiaEleições
China produces 3nm chips before 2027?
10
1kṀ729
Dec 31
37%
chance

Resolves yes if China is able to produce <= 3 nm chips at a ~70% yield rate. Will settle to credible sources, such as SemiAnalysis reports. Company press reports would not count.

Considerations

  • "Yield rate" refers to the percentage of functioning chips produced from each silicon wafer. A 70% yield rate is considered reasonably good for semiconductor manufacturing.

  • Semiconductor production data can be sensitive and sometimes difficult to verify independently, particularly for Chinese manufacturers.

Economics
Technology
AI
World
Business
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Ordenar por:

Note that “yield” depends a lot on the size of the die. For example it’s a lot easier to achieve 70% yield on phone SoCs than datacentre AI chips. The more independent measure is defect density

Pessoas também estão operando

Will China deploy domestic EUV sub-7nm chips for major tech by EOY 2026?
7% chance
[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?
96% chance
China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?
54% chance
Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?
19% chance
[Metaculus] Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?
61% chance
Will Huawei ship at least one million 910C chips in 2026?
34% chance
Will China's Darwin neuromorphic chip create an LLM in 2026?
27% chance
Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?
15% chance
Will Intel's photonics CPUs be available before 2027?
12% chance
Which will be the 3 largest chip manufacturers in 2030?
© Predita Markets, Inc.•Termos de Uso•Privacidade