Will the risk of death during Artemis II reach 20%?

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Dec 31

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There are several markets asking whether any of the astronauts on NASA’s Artemis II mission will not survive it, but they currently seem a bit higher (1-in-20) than one might expect.

To maybe squeeze more precision out of them, this market will resolve YES if, during or immediately after mission, an average of the largest such markets reaches a 20% chance of a death (either directly or implied). This must happen due to real mission events, not because of market manipulation (in my estimation). I will not bet on this market or any market that may count toward resolution.

Feel free to post relevant markets in the comments.

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This resolves YES if death occurs, right?

The tricky thing about this market is that most people would probably agree that the biggest risk of death comes from the heat shield, which is not something that we would ever expect to encounter some kind of event until it's literally already going through re-entry.

If the risk of death is ever widely viewed at more than 20%, I would expect that not to occur until after the mission has ended.

@SimonWestlake Good point. I always meant “during the mission” to mean “not before the mission”, primarily to avoid market manipulation. A delayed market response to a failed re-entry will resolve Yes, because if nothing else I’ll leave the duplicate market open until things have settled.