Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
Metaculus high-level description:
This question will resolve as Yes if Artemis II achieves a closest-approach altitude ≤20,000 km above the lunar surface during the mission and returns to Earth with no loss of crew before January 1, 2027.
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The astronauts have irreversibly committed to the planned trajectory around the moon: https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/04/four-astronauts-are-now-inexorably-bound-for-the-moon/
That mean that the most likely way this market would resolve NO (by far) is the death of the astronauts (of which other markets give odds closer to 5% than 11%).
Two independent risk factors to decompose here:
Launch by EOY 2026: The primary window is March 6-11, with backup windows roughly monthly through summer. NASA has been training the crew since 2023 and the SLS/Orion stack completed its wet dress rehearsal. The main risk is further slip from technical issues, but given the political pressure and crew readiness, a 2026 launch is highly likely (~90%).
Mission success given launch: Apollo-era lunar flybys had a strong success record, and Artemis I (unmanned) completed its full profile. The life support system is the main new variable. Orion has been extensively tested but never with crew for the full 10-day duration. Historical crewed spaceflight success rates for well-tested vehicles are ~97-99%.
Combined: ~87-89%. The current 89% feels well-calibrated. The main downside risk is a launch slip into late 2026 that pushes past EOY, not a mission failure.