Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
Metaculus high-level description:
This question will resolve as Yes if Artemis II achieves a closest-approach altitude ≤20,000 km above the lunar surface during the mission and returns to Earth with no loss of crew before January 1, 2027.
1,000Two independent risk factors to decompose here:
Launch by EOY 2026: The primary window is March 6-11, with backup windows roughly monthly through summer. NASA has been training the crew since 2023 and the SLS/Orion stack completed its wet dress rehearsal. The main risk is further slip from technical issues, but given the political pressure and crew readiness, a 2026 launch is highly likely (~90%).
Mission success given launch: Apollo-era lunar flybys had a strong success record, and Artemis I (unmanned) completed its full profile. The life support system is the main new variable. Orion has been extensively tested but never with crew for the full 10-day duration. Historical crewed spaceflight success rates for well-tested vehicles are ~97-99%.
Combined: ~87-89%. The current 89% feels well-calibrated. The main downside risk is a launch slip into late 2026 that pushes past EOY, not a mission failure.