iiinteresting

I really think this market is overvalued. Here's two links to get started:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ddi792xdfNXcBwF8qpDUxmZzIksrs0jy/

https://idlewords.com/2026/03/artemis_ii_is_not_safe_to_fly.htm

@SimonWestlake I thought for sure there was no way a mission would launch with 1/20 chance of everyone being dead, but then after reading more and more about it, it turns out that everyone just accepts this and 1/20 may be a realistic real value rather than something more like 1/200 which I would have guessed.

@Eliza I think it's less that everyone accepts it, but that NASA systematically denies it by using insufficient analysis that gets them numbers that they like

Is it 95, 92, or 98?

@jks Would you consider re-opening this market until the mission ends April 12?

@LoganTurner Yes! I didn’t mean for it to close. Thank you.

I'm dying. Someone help.

There is no way someone would launch a crewed mission to space if there was nearly a 1 out of 10 chance that PEOPLE WOULD DIE.

There has to be more to the story, someone tell me what is going on.

@Eliza FWIW, I doubt they will presently fly it with the current heat shield, my bet is they will delay and switch.

@Eliza Seems like the usual lack of incentives to bet down tiny probabilities. Maybe a market zooming in on the low end could help?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen it's extremely clear that's not going to happen

@Eliza look up Casey Handmer's blogs about Artemis, he argues that this is a terribly unsafe program and NASA is ignoring problems just like they did with the space shuttle

How much can I trust the 96 here? There is absolutely no freaking way the organization would accept that risk level if it was true, right????

@EvanDaniel find a way to get the real probability!!!

https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-artemis-2-fly-without-crew?r=SnVzc2lWaWxsZUhlaXNrYW5lbg

Will Artemis 2 fly without crew?

15% chance. For any reason, but this is inspired by the chatter about the heat shield

There is another market about Orion not being crewed? How will this market resolve if Artemis 2 doesn't have a crew?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen If there are no humans on board, then this market will resolve N/A.

Updating closing date to 30 September 2025 due to delays:

https://spacenews.com/nasa-delays-artemis-2-and-3-missions/