
Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?
32
1kṀ16kOct 2
7%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Refers to upper stage only.
Successfully caught means remains in one piece allowing inspection. It does not have to be capable of reflight, a few serious scratches would be ok as vehicle could be inspected.
Will extend deadline until one occurs. If neither is going to happen resolves na.
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When will Starship reach orbit?
4/15/27
When will Starship complete an orbit?
Which Starship will be the first to be caught?
[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
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Successful Starship splashdowns before orbital launch attempt?
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51% chance
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Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?
Will Starship reach Earth orbit before the Blue Origin Lunar Lander?
71% chance