Successful Starship splashdowns before orbital launch attempt?
16
1ká¹€81722027
0.6%
4
0.7%
5
0.8%
6
75%
7
15%
8
8%
The minimum is 4 as i am counting flights 4, 5, 6 and 10 as successfully splashed down.
Update 2025-11-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This is not a multiple resolution market - only one option can resolve YES.
The market was temporarily resolved as 4 and then unresolved.
Update 2026-05-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Flight 11 counts as a successful splashdown. Flight 12 appears successful but is pending confirmation from new video releases. If Flight 12 is confirmed, the total successful splashdowns would be 6.
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When will Starship successfully land for the first time?
1/1/27
When will Starship first launch with useful payload?
Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?
91% chance
How many Successful Starship Splashdowns before successful Starship Catch?
Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?
4% chance
Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?
What year will Starship launch at least as many times as Falcon 9?
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Yes with flights 4, 5, 6, 10, 11, 12, and 13 we come to a current total of 7.
This ended up being a bit more prolonged than i originally suspected lol but it’s looking like we are close.
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Perguntas relacionadas
When will Starship successfully land for the first time?
1/1/27
When will Starship first launch with useful payload?
Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?
91% chance
How many Successful Starship Splashdowns before successful Starship Catch?
Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?
4% chance
Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?
What year will Starship launch at least as many times as Falcon 9?