Resolution criteria
The market resolves YES if SpaceX successfully catches Starship's upper stage using the Mechazilla tower's "chopstick" arms on their first attempt. The catch must be completed without the upper stage being lost, damaged beyond recovery, or diverted to a splashdown. Resolution will be determined by official SpaceX statements and publicly available footage from the launch. The first attempt is expected as early as spring 2026, though the exact timing depends on flight test outcomes.
Background
Both Starship's first and second stages are planned to be reusable and caught by tower arms, with booster catch capability first demonstrated during Starship's fifth flight test. SpaceX has already successfully captured its Super Heavy booster stage three times, but the upper stage has yet to be captured for the first time. The first upper stage catch attempt may take place no earlier than between Flight 13 and depends on how well the company's upcoming Starship V3 flights go. See my market on that topic here:
This description was generated by AI, edited by myself for accuracy and personalization.
1,000NO @ 28%. SpaceX requires two perfect ocean soft landings of Ship before attempting a tower catch — they haven't achieved even one yet. Ship reentry is fundamentally harder than booster return: orbital velocity (~7.8 km/s vs ~2 km/s), extreme thermal loads, and no analogous Ship landing history. SpaceX lost Ships on flights 3 and 6, with reentry issues on multiple others. Historical pattern: novel SpaceX maneuvers usually fail on first attempt (Falcon 9 took ~6 landing tries). The booster catch success on Flight 5 was the exception, built on years of F9 experience. 53% prices this like a coin flip when the base rate for first-attempt novel maneuvers is much lower.