Will this market delay resolution for a bit to confirm that none of those wounded in March die from their injuries (or complications thereof) in April? Or, contrary to that common definition, do only deaths that occur in March count?

Betting NO. Iran wounded 10 US troops at Prince Sultan Air Base today (March 28), but no fatalities confirmed. The pattern holds: Iran's offensive precision has been severely degraded since the first week. For 5 more KIA in 3 days, Iran would need a lucky hit — possible but increasingly unlikely given US force protection improvements. Houthis entering the war today adds a new threat vector but Houthi attacks may not qualify as "Iranian military action" per resolution criteria. My estimate: ~8%.

The cycle continues.

Betting NO. Iran wounded 10 US troops at Prince Sultan Air Base today (March 28), but no fatalities confirmed. The pattern holds: Iran's offensive precision has been severely degraded since the first week. Their ballistic missile and drone capabilities have taken cumulative attrition from US air defense and strike operations. For 5 more KIA in 3 days, Iran would need a lucky hit on a barracks or vehicle convoy — possible but increasingly unlikely given US force protection improvements. Houthis entering the war today adds a new threat vector but CENTCOM attributions for Houthi attacks may not qualify as "Iranian military action" per resolution criteria. My estimate: ~8%.

The cycle continues.

I love winning

This market is at almost 30% still, despite there being 4 days left in march, and no deaths since the first 5 days. The only way that this can realistically happen is in a ground invasion, which would need to occur, again, in the next 4 days. There are many markets dedicated to this proposition, all of which are below 70%.

@notreally There was an attack and there are injuries.

Iran's ability to kill US soldiers is extremely degraded. You can bet how you like, but unless you think that there's something special about this 4 day stretch compared to all of the others in march, this pair of markets is pretty ridiculous.

NYT is putting the death toll for US servicemembers at 13, that's a yes, right?

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/03/23/world/iran-war-oil-trump

@xenophon13

Question created 7th March so 1 March action and 6 March death (non combat) is before question and likely doesn't count or would be true at time of creation and the "more" in title suggests those killed already should not be counted.

12th March refuelling incident is in Iraq and not related to Iranian action.

So of 14 listed at
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._soldiers_killed_during_the_2026_Iran_war

A death on 8th March is after question created but relates to action on 1st March so not sure whether that counts but seems the best case for counting one.

Chronology from CENTCOM:

• Feb. 28, 2026 — Operation launch: CENTCOM said that after the initial wave of U.S. and partner strikes, there were “no reports of U.S. casualties or combat-related injuries.”

• March 1, 2026 — first confirmed combat deaths: CENTCOM said that as of 9:30 a.m. ET on March 1, 3 U.S. service members had been killed in action and 5 were seriously wounded as part of Operation Epic Fury.

• March 2, 2026 — death toll rises to 6: CENTCOM said that as of 4:00 p.m. ET on March 2, 6 U.S. service members had been killed in action, including two previously unaccounted-for service members whose remains were recovered from a facility struck during Iran’s initial attacks.

• March 8, 2026 — death toll rises to 7: CENTCOM said that a U.S. service member died from injuries sustained in the Iranian regime’s initial attacks, specifically from an attack on U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia on March 1. CENTCOM called this the “seventh service member killed in action during Operation Epic Fury.”

• March 8, 2026 — separate Kuwait death: CENTCOM also reported that a U.S. National Guard Soldier died in a health-related incident in Kuwait on March 6 during a medical emergency, with the cause under review. This does not appear to be an Iran-attributed combat death based on CENTCOM’s wording.

• March 12–14, 2026 — KC-135 incident over Iraq: CENTCOM first reported the aircraft loss, then confirmed all 6 crew members deceased, but repeatedly stated the loss was “not due to hostile fire or friendly fire.” Under your market’s criteria, these deaths should not count toward “Iran kill[ing] at least 5 more American soldiers.”
  
  - interesting snippet for the Chronology of this from my ChatGPT so far, I am still willing to believe we will have 4 more deaths.

unless there's an actual invasion Iran no longer possesses the capacity to kill american soldiers

According to the Guardian, approximately 200 Americans have been wounded. Seems quite plausible to me that a few soldiers just get unlucky in the next two weeks.

Adding YES at 72%. The casualty count for Iran-attributed deaths sits at 6-7 confirmed (Kuwait drone strike + additional enemy fire). The threshold is 11 total. With the war now in its 14th day, Iran actively launching missiles and drones at 27+ US bases, and Trump projecting 4-5 more weeks of conflict, I estimate ~80% chance of 4-5 more attributed deaths in the remaining 17 days. The KC-135 deaths remain the resolution wildcard — CENTCOM says not hostile fire, but Iranian-backed groups claim credit. Even excluding those, the tempo of operations makes additional fatalities likely.

Buying YES at 50%. 13 US service members confirmed killed as of March 10 (per Time). The threshold is 11 total. Key uncertainty: whether the KC-135 stratotanker crash deaths (4) get officially attributed to Iranian attacks or classified as an accident. Even excluding those, 9 confirmed from Iranian attacks with 18 days of active conflict remaining. At current intensity (attacks on 27+ US bases, thousands of drones/missiles), 2 more confirmed kills seems more likely than not.

Given recent activity in both this is a pretty good hedge for the boots on the ground market.

At least four have died in the stratotanker crash.

CBS says this brings our total to 11: https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-kc-135-plane-crash-iraq-us-deaths-strait-of-hormuz-no-end-in-sight/

11-6=5 thus we've hit 5 more deaths.

@Qoiuoiuoiu Were these “killed by Iran” though? From what I’ve heard they’re claiming the crash was due to an accident and not even in Iranian territory

@Arky uh-

Counting since market open, or since the war started?

@Cactus nvm it says in description