Will US and Iranian military forces engage in direct armed combat by end of April 2026?
9
100Ṁ206Apr 30
47%
chance
20
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if US military forces and Iranian military forces (not proxies) engage in direct armed combat by April 30, 2026.
Counts: US forces firing on Iranian military inside Iran or vice versa, naval exchange of fire, ground engagement, shooting down military aircraft.
Does NOT count: Strikes on proxies (Houthis, Hezbollah, militias), cyberattacks, sanctions, threats without action, accidents immediately de-escalated.
Resolution source: AP, Reuters, or AFP confirming direct engagement.
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