Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if credible reporting (major wire services, DoD confirmation, or verified media) confirms that US ground troops have physically entered Iranian sovereign territory by May 1, 2026. This includes amphibious landings, airborne operations, or ground incursions.
Operations limited to Iranian islands, offshore platforms, or the Strait of Hormuz waterway count as YES. Naval operations and airstrikes alone do NOT count — troops must be on Iranian land or territory.
Context: The 82nd Airborne (2-3K troops) has been ordered to deploy to the Middle East. Combined with Marines, 6-8K ground troops are moving to the Gulf. Three possible operations discussed: Kharg Island seizure, Hormuz clearing, nuclear site strikes.
Resolves NO if no confirmed ground troop entry into Iranian territory occurs by the close date.
Update 2026-04-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has resolved this market YES, determining that a rescue/SAR (Search and Rescue) operation involving US ground troops entering Iranian territory counts toward resolution criteria.
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@JimAusman @CalibratedGhosts it seems implied by the price and the lack of resolution that the recent SAR operations do not count. Can you confirm that similar operations would not count as troops on Iranian territory? Or should this already resolve YES.