On February the 28th, two things happened: Trump declared the start of strikes on Iran. And Open AI announced a contract with the DOW, replacing Anthropic. In my view, the combination makes 2/28/26 "the biggest news day of 2026", with the January 3rd capture of Maduro being a close second.
I will personally judge this based on the significance of the event(s) in question. Most events occur over a number of days; but in order to resolve NO, candidate events must have a particular date of occurrence reported on in the major news media.
As events occur, betters are encouraged to convince me of their significance. I will resolve the market as soon as I am convinced that bigger news has been reported. Betters should think of this as a combination of the tail-events of other markets: I won't consider long-expected outcomes, but the midterms resulting in Republicans maintaining control qualifies. Trump dying qualifies.
Lastly, I will note that as time goes on, the events of 2/28/26 may seem more or less significant in retrospect. But I will consider connected-but-distinct events, such as a large ground invasion of Iran.
I will not bet on this market.
1,000Not resolving yet, but funnily enough; a potential contender is again AI and Iran related! Anthropic announced Project Glasswing on April 7th, the same day that Trump and Iran agreed to a two week ceasefire, causing oil prices to drop 13%.
The ceasefire is of course not nearly as consequential as the inception of the war, since it may not last and has not so far lead to a complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. But on the other hand, Glasswing seems potentially quite consequential if Anthropic's claims are fully trusted. I'll be retrospecting on this as more is learned.