Will anything CRAZY happen on August 4, 2026?
20
100Ṁ710Aug 4
4%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
In Humanities today we read a Ray Bradbury story that featured a nuclear blast occurring on August 4, 2026. Resolution is linked to /ItsMe/will-something-crazy-happen-monthly, if the option "August" resolves to YES based on an event that happened at least partially on 08.04.2026 EST, creator judgement. If you're interested, the story is here.
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Probability of something CRAZY happening in August: 36% [Market-implied]
Multiply that by 1/31
Implied probability of this market: 1.1%
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