Which of Simon Willison's predictions from 2026 will come true?
5
1kį¹230Dec 31
46%
1 year: It will become undeniable that LLMs write good code
50%
1 year: Weāre finally going to solve sandboxing
35%
1 year: A āChallenger disasterā for coding agent security
50%
1 year: KÄkÄpÅ parrots will have an outstanding breeding season
50%
3 years: the coding agents Jevons paradox for software engineering will resolve, one way or the other
40%
6 years: Typing code by hand will go the way of punch cards
From https://simonwillison.net/2026/Jan/8/llm-predictions-for-2026/
If Simon publishes evaluations of his own predictions, I'll resolve accordingly. If no evaluations are forthcoming, I may resolve based on my own judgement.
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I think āit will be undeniable AI can write good codeā will be false because the standard for āgood codeā will shift as AI improves.
Kind of like how when LLMs got IMO Gold, and proved Erdos problem 205 those things became unimpressive.
As long as there are AI haters and AI exists at a level that isnāt clearly superhuman, thereās going to be lots of people saying itās bad at what itās doing.
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