Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2026
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Credible sources, battles or clear Russian troops on the other side of the border. Or, bombs them, or does drone strikes. Or other kinetic attacks.
Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate. There has to be at least a shot fired.
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@Ernie There would be troops, so that suggests YES, but no shots fired necessarily, so that would suggest NO
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