Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2029
11
1ká¹€1858
2029
15%
chance

Credible sources, battles or clear Russian troops on the other side of the border. Or, bombs them, or does drone strikes. Or other kinetic attacks.

Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate. There has to be at least a shot fired.

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