Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?

1.6kṀ10k

Mar 15

63%

The Pentagon continues to use Anthropic services without the requested changes

46%

The Pentagon cuts ties with Anthropic

30%

The Pentagon declares Anthropic a "supply chain risk"

24%

Autonomous weapon + surveillance Claude safeguards are removed for the Pentagon

24%

The Pentagon invokes the Defense Production Act

Anthropic stops advancing AI capabilities

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Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?

25% chance

Will Anthropic have a major conflict involving its unique corporate structure similar to OpenAI before 2030?

54% chance

What will be the next major event for Anthropic?

Would Anthropic win in Starcraft2 match between the best players of the Anthropic team and those of the OpenAI team?

38% chance

Will Anthropic cause human extinction in the next 5 years?

3% chance

Will evidence emerge that Anthropic's pursuit of regulatory capture is aided by U.S. Adversaries by 2027 year end?

10% chance

Will Anthropic, before 2035, completely halt development of AI and attempt to persuade other organizations to do so?

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This market came first: https://manifold.markets/2b3o4o/what-will-happen-between-anthropic

aberto a Ṁ100 NO at 37% order

@Bayesian do all safeguards need to be removed, or just a single safeguard?

edited to reflect the safeguards mentioned in current reporting

aberto a Ṁ250 YES at 5% order

2% seems a bit low on "Anthropic stops advancing AI capabilities", since that includes both "Anthropic goes under because being declared a supply chain risk halts growth" and also "Anthropic does a Lavabit"

aberto a Ṁ5,000 NO at 5% order

@FaulSname filled you, and an extra NO limit order up at 5%

comprou Ṁ250 YES

@Bayesian thanks! Took you up on it. I hope you win, I like Claude.

comprou Ṁ250 NO

https://manifold.markets/bens/will-the-us-department-of-defense-c

Now this market has settings "Closes on Mar 15, 2026"

Will the variants be resolved as of March 15, 2026 (or earlier, if settled before then), or are you planning to extend the market beyond Mar 15, 2026?

@bessarabov i wasn’t sure, open to suggestions. The intent is to cover the current feud and assuming it resolves in the next monthish but i don’t know if that is the case

@Bayesian I'm not sure either. Probably, I'd like the timeframe to cover the entire year of 2026. The variants should be resolved immediately once they occur, or at the beginning of 2027 if they don't occur (I'm not certain, but I have a feeling this could drag on for more than a month)