The DoD is threatening to label Anthropic a supply chain risk, forcing everyone who has contracts with the Pentagon to stop using Anthropic.
https://x.com/DavidLawler10/status/2023425130148626767?s=20
This seems like it would be a very big deal.
The three possible outcomes are pretty mutually exclusive, but if there's gray area between two (or even all three?) of the options, I may resolve them to PROB. I will try my best to resolve to the most clear outcome. I will not bet in this market to remain as objective as possible.
Update 2026-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the Defense Production Act is used to compel Anthropic to continue producing software, this would resolve as "continue to use Anthropic" (the first option).
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@bens Does a six month phase out count as ending contracts with Anthropic, or as continuing to do business with them?
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116144552969293195
Hmmm... if they use the defense production act to compel Anthropic to continue producing software, that would resolve as the first option (continue to use Anthropic) I guess:
1) DoD prob does need no strings attached from it's contractors & I doubt they would settle for less (especially as google and openai will continue to improve) so it's up to dario if he can find a way to thread the needle by saying claude can only be used for legal purposes which is already in the law or something like that and still keep the goody-two-shoes-anthropic brand
2) AI czar David Sacks hates Anthropic and I wonder how involved he is in this
3) otoh Anthropic would be crazy to not agree to whatever DoD wants. If they get labeled as supply chain risk, that forbids a ton of fortune 500s from using them