Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?

What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2026?

Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027?

Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?

Will Alex Zhu meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 2%?

Will davidad meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?

Will manifold markets meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?