Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?

Will davidad meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?

Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027?

What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2026?

Will Alex Zhu meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 2%?

Will MIRI meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 5%?

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?

Will Jose Luis Ricon meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?

Will the VC 50 Years meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3?