[Carlini questions] 6+ month pause on AI development | Axel

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[Carlini questions] 6+ month pause on AI development

9

125Ṁ588

2030

1%

By Jan 1st 2026

9%

By Jan 1st 2027

16%

By Jan 1st 2028

23%

By Jan 1st 2029

30%

By Jan 1st 2030

Resolution Criteria:

This pause could come in the form of a government mandate, court order (e.g., declaring models copyright infringement), blackmail, organized protest, etc. What matters is the outcome: new higly-capability models are not being trained because of some external force has prevented them.

Motivation and Context:

Several researchershave called for a "pause" on AI development, in order to allow society (and safety research) to catch up with the rapid pace of AI development. So far this hasn't happened, and it's looked like it won't happen any time soon. Will it ever happen?

Question copied from: https://nicholas.carlini.com/writing/2024/forecasting-ai-future.html

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Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

Will the EU announce new emergency AI regulations or an AGI development pause before May 1, 2026?

Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?

Will OpenAI pause capabilities R&D voluntarily before 2027?

Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028?

A top-three AI lab delays a frontier model release six months for safety reasons?

In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances?

Will AI labs need to switch to monitoring chips for a moratorium on AI development to work?

Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?

If AI has an okay outcome because of a pause, will the exit strategy involve a new AI paradigm?

Perguntas relacionadas

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

Will the EU announce new emergency AI regulations or an AGI development pause before May 1, 2026?

Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?

Will OpenAI pause capabilities R&D voluntarily before 2027?

Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028?

A top-three AI lab delays a frontier model release six months for safety reasons?

In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances?

Will AI labs need to switch to monitoring chips for a moratorium on AI development to work?

Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?

If AI has an okay outcome because of a pause, will the exit strategy involve a new AI paradigm?

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