A top-three AI lab delays a frontier model release six months for safety reasons?
8
100Ṁ1322028
18%
chance
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6H
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1M
ALL
Hinge #5 bet proposed in this post: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/45oxYwysFiqwfKCcN/untitled-draft-keg3
At least one top‑three lab publicly delays a frontier model six or more months for safety reasons.
The other bets:
#1: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/nvidias-datacenter-revenue-and-bigt
#2: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/ai-model-training-time-decreases-fo
#3: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/revenue-per-deployed-h100-exceeds-1
#4: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/g7-country-manages-three-years-of-6
Meta-market for majority of the five bets: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/will-a-majority-of-the-5-hingequest?play=true
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