California's 4th District margin of victory
4
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1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
50%
Mike Thompson, 1+ pts
32%
Mike Thompson, 5+ pts
18%
Mike Thompson, 10+ pts
8%
Mike Thompson, 15+ pts
6%
Mike Thompson, 20+ pts
6%
Mike Thompson, 25+ pts
6%
Mike Thompson, 30+ pts
Mirrors this Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/midterm-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-ca04mtho
Resolves according to Kalshi's final result, using Kalshi's rules for this market.
Kalshi's rules: If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
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