SOAI#2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration
27
1kṀ42452027
5%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration.
If they do not issue a ruling by EOY 2026, I will resolve by asking Anthropic's best model to evaluate based on their exact wording.
Esta pergunta é gerenciada e resolvida pela Predita.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Pessoas também estão operando
Perguntas relacionadas
Will OpenAI delay OR withdraw a model release due to demands by the US US government by EOY 2026?
97% chance
Will the US government restrict access to an OpenAI model in 2026?
80% chance
SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)
28% chance
Does open sourcing LLMs/AI models (a la meta) increase risk of AI catastrophe?
61% chance
Any American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?
41% chance
The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026
29% chance
Will OpenAI stick to its commitment to the same red lines as Anthropic for the US military using its AI by EOY 2026?
60% chance
Will a major AI lab enter the aerospace industry by EOY 2026?
80% chance
OpenAI (props)
Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)
75% chance