Will open-source AI win? (through 2028) | Axel

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Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)

58

1kṀ5799

2029

32%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

In total output, real-world use, plus prestige (open labs attracting the best talent)

PROB resolution--2022 would have resolved ~70-80% YES

Based on informed (and uninformed) comments, search trends, random Twitter hive minding, etc.

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Lol what is this resolution criteria?

That's a very vague criteria. Open source definitely has better public perception but weaker models and it's likely to stay that way.

previuYES

previuYES

https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neither

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028), 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

Pessoas também estão operando

Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)

Will OpenAI Fail by EOY 2028?

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Will an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Will Open AI ‘collapse’ in the next two years?

Will OpenAI lose the lead in AI continually for a period of at least 6 months during the next three years?

Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?

Will it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?

Perguntas relacionadas

Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)

Will OpenAI Fail by EOY 2028?

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Will an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Will Open AI ‘collapse’ in the next two years?

Will OpenAI lose the lead in AI continually for a period of at least 6 months during the next three years?

Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?

Will it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?

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