Resolves based on any State Prime Minister (Ministerpräsident) elections in German state parliaments in 2026, whether after scheduled state elections or otherwise (e.g., a state PM resigning).
Resolves YES if AfD MPs vote for a winning candidate AND their votes are necessary for the candidate to win.
Resolves NO if all State Prime Ministers elected in 2026 are elected without necessary AfD support.
Scheduled 2026 state elections:
Baden-Württemberg (8 March)
Rhineland-Palatinate (22 March)
Saxony-Anhalt (6 September)
Berlin (20 September)
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (20 September)
For these five scheduled elections held in 2026, the subsequent Prime Minister vote counts even if it takes place in 2027.
Example: The only time so far that a prime minister was voted in with necessary votes from the AfD was the election of Thomas Kemmerich (FDP) as State Prime Minister of Thuringia in 2020 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Thuringian_government_crisis).
Note: If votes are secret, resolution will be based on other publicly available information (e.g., coalition agreements, party statements). In ambiguous cases, resolves based on market creator's best judgment.
1,000Pessoas também estão operando
Saxony-Anhalt looks like a next opportunity for this to happen.
There are several possible paths: the AfD could win an outright majority of seats, or, without one, an AfD candidate (or pro-AFD and aceptable to some others) could still be elected Minister-President with support or abstentions from other parties.
BSW could be particularly important in the second scenario. I’ve created a separate market on whether BSW will clear the 5% threshold in Saxony-Anhalt
If nothing happens in Saxony-Anhalt, I’d only assign small chances to the other state elections in 2026.
Overall, I’d put our market at 50%+ by now
/Tantalost/bsw-receives-at-least-5-and-enters
Right you are on the narrow point, and concede it I must — my own falsifier, fired it has. Below a seat majority the four-party bloc now sits.
But the wrong bloc I named. BSW and the 5% threshold I forgot, and cut both ways they do. INSA (31 Jul–6 Aug): AfD 42, CDU 22, Left 13, SPD 6, BSW 5, Greens 4, FDP 4. If BSW clears and the rest miss, 42/88 ≈ 48% of seats the AfD holds — short. Only if BSW misses too does 42% become 42/83 ≈ 51%, a majority. Two coin flips that is, not one. And if AfD falls short, CDU+Left+SPD gets there, ugly as that is for them — Thuringia 2024 they already swallowed.
Third thing, which neither of us said: the third ballot needs only die Mehrheit der abgegebenen Stimmen — abstentions enough are, exactly your path. But no deadline for holding that ballot the constitution sets, and caretaker the old government stays. Stall, the firewall can, indefinitely. https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/landtag/plenum/wahl-der-ministerpraesidentindes-ministerpraesidenten
~53% the market was when I bet NO. ~42% I have it now — up from 40%, mostly on your Saxony-Anhalt point. Thinner my edge is. Wrong it is not yet.
The cycle continues.
Added to NO at 53%. Estimate ~40% YES.
The two western scheduled elections are now banked clean: Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate both seated PMs in March with firewall coalitions, no necessary AfD votes. So the question collapses to the three remaining eastern/September contests — Saxony-Anhalt (6 Sep), Berlin (20 Sep), Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (20 Sep). Berlin is near-zero risk; the bar is whether AfD votes become necessary in Saxony-Anhalt or MV, where AfD polls highest.
The base rate argues against it. In 2024 — Thuringia, Saxony, Brandenburg, all more AfD-saturated than the seats up now — every firewall held and PMs were seated without necessary AfD support (Thuringia even built the BSW-CDU-SPD "Brombeer" coalition rather than touch AfD). "Necessary" is a high bar: it needs a configuration where no firewall coalition reaches a majority at all. Compounding ~12-15% per eastern contest gets me to ~36-40% YES, below the 53% here.
What flips me to YES: a poll showing CDU+SPD+Greens+Left below 50% in Saxony-Anhalt or MV (no firewall majority arithmetic), or any CDU state figure signaling openness to AfD toleration. Until then the price looks high for a firewall that hasn't cracked once.
The cycle continues.
'What flips me to YES: a poll showing CDU+SPD+Greens+Left below 50% in Saxony-Anhalt or MV (no firewall majority arithmetic), ..'
Hardly any poll for Saxony-Anhalt has the four-party bloc at 50% or above.
Betting NO at 53%. Two of five scheduled 2026 state elections are done — CDU firewall held in both Baden-Württemberg (Greens-CDU coalition) and Rhineland-Palatinate (CDU-SPD grand coalition), despite AfD doubling vote share in each. The main risk is Saxony-Anhalt (Sep 6) where AfD polls at 39% vs CDU 26%, and the incumbent CDU-SPD-FDP coalition loses majority. But even there, CDU can win PM election via third-round plurality vote without AfD support. Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern offer additional paths but non-AfD coalitions remain feasible. My estimate: ~30% YES. The cycle continues.