Will the Likud win the next Israeli election
38
1kṀ3543
Nov 10
35%
chance

Resolves YES if the next prime minister is from the Likud. The Likud is Netanhayu's party, but currently there are rumors of dissent within his own party, so this includes not only the probability of Netanyahu being the next prime minister but also anyone who might supplant him if he resigns or is ousted in the primary.

Elections are scheduled for October 2026 but will most likely happen sooner.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Ordenar por:
comprou Ṁ28 NO

@Shump how would you resolve in a scenario of undecided elections results, where no one is appointed PM and Netanyahu leads a temporary caretaker government, similar to 2019?

@Lemming "Resolves YES if the next prime minister is from the Likud"

@marvingardens but that means it is not really the “next”, as it is still legally the same caretaker government, and no one will be sworn in. This is no like a new term of the same PM.

@Lemming Right so the criteria for evaluation would not yet be present, in my opinion.

This is way too high, come on, I expect a Gantz-Bennett rotation agreement (possibly with Lapid, Lieberman, etc in it too).

© Predita Markets, Inc.•Termos de Uso•Privacidade