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Israeli Politics 2026 Prop Bets [add your predictions]
18
1.8kṀ3462
Dec 31
60%
More than 6% of eligible votes go to parties below the threshold
60%
New PM other than Netanyahu
57%
Likud is the biggest party after next elections
51%
The largest party wins fewer than 25 seats
50%
At least one incumbent coalition party fails to cross the electoral threshold
48%
Stalemate: no new government, another elections (similar to 2019)
44%
The first candidate tasked with forming a government fails
38%
Netanyahu claims the elections were stolen due to widespread fraud
30%
Opposition block (ex. Arab parties) wins a majority in the next elections
29%
Opposition block forms a minority coalition with external support of Arab block
15%
Bennet’s new party is the biggest party after the next elections
Resolvido
YES
Budget law is passed before deadline (end of March)

  • Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): When counting parties, alliances and parties will both be included in the full list (not just standalone parties).

  • Update 2026-07-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Questions apply to the current elections, even if the final outcome is known after 2026 ends.

Politics
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Israel
Elections: World
Israeli Politics
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comprou Ṁ10 YES

Clarification: the questions apply for the current elections, even if the final outcome will be known after 2026 ends.

comprou Ṁ50 NO

are we distinguishing between “alliances” and “parties” and if so how

@TeapotinSagittarius good catch. Even though I technically mentioned “party”, I am going to use the entire list, inclusive of alliances.

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