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Israeli Politics 2026 Prop Bets [add your predictions]
31
2.6kแน€15k
Dec 31
98%
Raโ€™am passes the threshold
98%
Religious Zionismโ€“Zehut passes the threshold
98%
Likud is the biggest party after next elections
78%
Speaker of the is replaced within 4 weeks after elections day
57%
New PM other than Netanyahu
54%
Stalemate: no new government, another elections (similar to 2019)
43%
Opposition block forms a minority coalition with external support of Arab block
33%
The first candidate tasked with forming a government fails
22%
Opposition-led coalition, with temporary support from Arab parties, is sweared in and immediately disbanded - just so Netanyahu will not be caretaker PM
7%
More than 6% of eligible votes go to parties below the threshold
3%
The largest party wins fewer than 25 seats
3%
At least one incumbent coalition party fails to cross the electoral threshold
3%
Amcha Yisrael passes the threshold
2%
Reservists + New Economy passes the threshold
1.7%
Opposition block (ex. Arab parties) wins a majority in the next elections
1.5%
Bennetโ€™s new party is the biggest party after the next elections
1%
Opposition block (ex Arabs) wins more seats than coalition block; Netanyahu declares victory
Resolvido
YES
Budget law is passed before deadline (end of March)
Resolvido
YES
Netanyahu claims the elections were stolen due to widespread fraud
Resolvido
YES
New primary elections for Likud before the general elections

  • Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): When counting parties, alliances and parties will both be included in the full list (not just standalone parties).

  • Update 2026-07-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Questions apply to the current elections, even if the final outcome is known after 2026 ends.

  • Update 2026-10-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Benny Gantz is not considered part of the incumbent coalition.

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comprou แน€10 YES

@traders Likud issued a press release claiming that. If someone could find a direct quote from Netanyahu I will resolve.

comprou แน€25 YES

@Lemming This is a tweet in which he directly claims that.

@Lemming

Benjamin Netanyahu - ื‘ื ื™ืžื™ืŸ ื ืชื ื™ื”ื• (@netanyahu) on X

Benjamin Netanyahu - ื‘ื ื™ืžื™ืŸ ื ืชื ื™ื”ื• (@netanyahu) on X
ื”ื•ื“ืขืช ื”ืœื™ื›ื•ื“: ืคืจืฉืช ืจืขืดืžื’ื™ื™ื˜ ื”ื™ื ืจืขื™ื“ืช ืื“ืžื”. ื’ื ื‘ื• ืืช ื”ื‘ื—ื™ืจื•ืช ื‘ื™ืฉืจืืœ! ื”ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืฉืœ ื”ืฉื•ืคื˜ ืกื•ืœื‘ืจื’ ืขืœ ืžืขื•ืจื‘ื•ืช ืฉืœ ื’ื•ืจืžื™ื ื–ืจื™ื ืฉื”ืชืขืจื‘ื• ื•ืฉื™ื—ื“ื• ืžืฆื‘ื™ืขื™ื ืœื˜ื•ื‘ืช ื”ืžืคืœื’ื•ืช ื”ืขืจื‘ื™ื•ืช ื”ื ื˜ืœื˜ืœื” ื—ืกืจืช ืชืงื“ื™ื. ืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ ื‘ืคื™ื’ื•ืข ื‘ื“ืžื•ืงืจื˜ื™ื” ืฉืžื˜ืจืชื• ืœื”ื•ื‘ื™ืœ ืœื”ืฉืชืœื˜ื•ืช ื–ืจื” ืขืœ ื”ื›ื ืกืช, ืœืื™ืกืœืืžื™ื–ืฆื™ื” ืฉืœ ื™ืฉืจืืœ, ื•ืœื”ืคืœืช ืฉืœื˜ื•ืŸ ื”ื™ืžื™ืŸ ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ื•ื‘ื™โ€ฆ

@SpaceEngineer thanks! Resolved.

comprou แน€10 YES

does benny gantz not count as an incumbent political party??

@yaakovgrunsfeld he was not considered part of the incumbent coalition at the time this market was created

@Lemming officially withdrawn

@Lemming do we know whether this would work?

@AhronMaline legally, it can. Politically, thatโ€™s what the market is for.

comprou แน€100 YES

@Lemming This resolves YES.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/cohen-levin-ohana-and-regev-top-likud-primary-with-over-60-of-vote-counted/

comprou แน€10 YES

Clarification: the questions apply for the current elections, even if the final outcome will be known after 2026 ends.

comprou แน€50 NO

are we distinguishing between โ€œalliancesโ€ and โ€œpartiesโ€ and if so how

@TeapotinSagittarius good catch. Even though I technically mentioned โ€œpartyโ€, I am going to use the entire list, inclusive of alliances.

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