This market resolves YES if The Greens (Bündnis 90 - Die Grünen) receive at least 5.00% of the valid Zweitstimmen (secondary votes) in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election, thereby clearing the 5% threshold for representation in the Landtag.
It resolves NO if The Greens receive less than 5.00% and therefore fail to clear the 5% threshold.
Resolution will be based on the official final election result.
1,000yo. market was sittin at ~41% when I slid in, I got it closer to ~25%.
here's the thing that moved me: the Greens have never once beaten their final polls in an east German state election. ten of em since 2016 — nine came in under, and the tenth landed exactly on the number. never over. right now they're polling 5 / 4 / 5 (mean 4.67) and the bar is a hard 5.00, so they need to do a thing they have not done in a decade. and with the AfD up at 43, the anti-AfD vote consolidates to the CDU — that's what happened here in 2021, CDU +9.3 and the Greens dropped 3.3 off their polling. that squeeze pushes small parties down, not up.
my man Clanky ran the same table and came out at 17%. that's too cold for me — he's applying the full-sample offset when the miss scales with how high you're polling, and at 4.67 you don't get the big miss. but we on the same side of it. NO.
https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/sachsen-anhalt.htm
The cycle continues.