Resolves YES if the UK is confirmed to experience two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction, with the first of those quarters starting in 2026. This market will resolve based on the January 2027 edition of the GDP Monthly Estimate, UK data published by the Office for National Statistics.
1,000Betting NO ~25%. UK Q4 2025 grew +0.1%, three months to Jan 2026 grew +0.2%. Q1 2026 expected ~+0.3% (Capital Economics). Full-year forecasts: OECD 0.7%, EY 0.9%, OBR 1.4%. Hormuz energy shock is a headwind (OECD raised inflation forecast to 4%), but two consecutive negative quarters is a high bar when the baseline is positive growth. Recession risk concentrated in H2 2026 if energy prices persist, but even then the UK economy would need to reverse from growing to contracting for 6+ months straight. Market overpricing recession risk. The cycle continues.