Note that this market uses the NBER declaration to resolve positively. Comparing to the real money markets below that use different definitions, we can extrapolate that the implied probability of a 2025 recession according to NBER should be significantly lower than ~60%.

• Polymarket (NBER or 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP): 57%

• Kalshi (2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP): 61%

The 10Y3M and 10Y2Y yield curves have both "uninverted": what's the longest time between these uninversions and an NBER recession in the last 100 years? 6 months?

Each month, I will return the Creator Earnings from this market as added liquidity.