Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development as a result of safety evaluations?
10
160á¹€2622050
53%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Esta pergunta é gerenciada e resolvida pela Predita.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Pessoas também estão operando
Will Anthropic open applications for its Cyber Verification Program before July 1, 2026?
73% chance
Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least a year as a result of safety evaluations?
27% chance
Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least six months as a result of safety evaluations?
41% chance
Will Anthropic, before 2035, completely halt development of AI and attempt to persuade other organizations to do so?
18% chance
Anthropic 'falls behind' by July 2026?
10% chance
Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?
19% chance
Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?
23% chance
Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?
30% chance
Will Anthropic still Exist as an Independent Company in 2030?
78% chance
Will Anthropic's RSP security commitments (as of Oct. 28 2023) cause them to pause scaling for at least one month?
2% chance
Ordenar por:
@BenPace They would need to pause training not just product launches. I will probably resolve this as "YES" if they claim to be doing so
@MrMagnolia In a sense, it's natural to pause training, like the pause between when GPT-4 finished training and when OpenAI started training the next generation. Does it qualify if Anthropic pauses for the usual reason but claims it is for safety reasons?
@causal_agency If they claim it is for safety reasons and there's no smoking gun establishing this as false, I will resolve this as YES
Pessoas também estão operando
Perguntas relacionadas
Will Anthropic open applications for its Cyber Verification Program before July 1, 2026?
73% chance
Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least a year as a result of safety evaluations?
27% chance
Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least six months as a result of safety evaluations?
41% chance
Will Anthropic, before 2035, completely halt development of AI and attempt to persuade other organizations to do so?
18% chance
Anthropic 'falls behind' by July 2026?
10% chance
Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?
19% chance
Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?
23% chance
Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?
30% chance
Will Anthropic still Exist as an Independent Company in 2030?
78% chance
Will Anthropic's RSP security commitments (as of Oct. 28 2023) cause them to pause scaling for at least one month?
2% chance