I don’t like NAing markets but this market was created when it seemed likely Streeting was going to trigger leadership challenge. Since there’s no leadership challenge when Starmer resigned, I will be NAing this market.

@Mochi I don’t think this is right. The party leadership election process has been opened and MPs are free to stand for leader if they meet the criteria. I don’t understand what else you could have meant, this is how the party works.

@CraigIM my understanding is a leadership challenge occurs when they have 20%+ mp triggering such challenge. Whereas the current leadership election process is not a “triggered leadership challenge”? Correct me if I am misunderstanding the process

@Mochi This is basically what I was talking about a month ago. Starmer deciding not to contest Burnham's challenge causes there to be no challenge (formally).

(To be clear I agree that N/A is the correct resolution for this market. Labour has a clear distinction between "challenge" and "vacancy" as reasons for leadership elections.)

Seems like this can probably resolve now?

@Fion I think it may be an NA if there’s no leadership challenge. If anyone launches a leadership challenge though it will resolve NO

@Mochi what do you mean by "leadership challenge"?

Keir Starmer has already announced his resignation. Anybody who becomes leader now hasn't "challenged" him. I'm not sure whether the market should be NO or NA based on your definition but I don't see why it can't resolve now?

@Fion It should probably be NA based on prior clarification /Mochi/will-starmer-contest-a-leadership-c and the intent of the market was always whether he would contest a leadership challenge conditional on it occurring.

Here's a related market, but without the possibility of N/A. Basically situations where this market would N/A, mine will resolve No

This market is so weird because of the N/A criterion. Like I just don't understand enough about the inner workings of Labour to know whether it's more likely for Starmer to not stand in a leadership election vs announce resignation when somebody actually gets the numbers (but before there's a formal challenge)

@archvenison the NA criterion makes it clear what is precisely we are trying to predict here. whether Starmer will contest challenge conditional on the challenge occurs.

@Mochi I understand. My issue is that I think it gets muddied by the fact that whether there is a challenge (formally) depends to a large extent on whether Starmer wants to fight the challenge (colloquially).

So a big part of this market becomes: conditional on Starmer giving up, is there a formal challenge. Which is more about the internal workings of the Labour Party than about Starmer's personal intentions.

Which to be clear is totally fine, but it's not something I have a very good handle on. (And I want the answer to the other question, which is why I made my own market)

@Mochi If Starmer resigns without a formal leadership challenge, I assume that’s N/A?

@archvenison correct